Were Iranian ballistic missile capabilities damaged in Israeli strikes? - The Jerusalem Post

Oct 28, 2024

The Israel Air Force struck a dozen targets in Iran that were used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles as part of its retaliatory military action against the Islamic Republic, severely harming Tehran's ability to replenish its inventory, it was reported on Saturday night.

The targets struck were sophisticated equipment that Iran could not produce on its own and had to be purchased from China, Walla reported. The targets were a critical component of Iran's ballistic missile program, Walla cited three anonymous Israeli sources as saying.

An American researcher said an Israeli airstrike on Saturday hit a building that was part of Iran's defunct nuclear weapons development program, and he and another researcher said facilities used to mix solid fuel for missiles also were struck.

The assessments based on commercial satellite imagery were reached separately by David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank.

They told Reuters that Israel struck buildings in Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran. Israel also hit Khojir, according to Eveleth, a sprawling missile production site near Tehran.

Iran's military said the Israeli warplanes used "very light warheads" to strike border radar systems in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and around Tehran.

In posts on X, Albright said commercial satellite imagery showed that Israel hit a building in Parchin called Taleghan 2 that was used for testing activities during the Amad Plan, Iran's defunct nuclear weapons development program.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and US intelligence say Iran shuttered the program in 2003. Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons.

Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security research group, was given access to the program's files for a book after they were stolen from Tehran by Israel's Mossad intelligence agency in 2018.

On X, he said the archives revealed that Iran kept important test equipment in Taleghan 2.

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Iran may have removed key materials before the airstrike, he said, but "even if no equipment remained inside" the building would have provided "intrinsic value" for future nuclear weapons-related activities.

Albright told Reuters that commercial satellite imagery of Parchin showed Israel damaged three buildings about 350 yards (320 m) from Taleghan 2, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.

He did not identify the commercial firm from which he obtained the images.

Eveleth said an image of Parchin from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm, showed that Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse in the sprawling complex.

Planet Labs imagery also showed that an Israeli strike destroyed two buildings in the Khojir complex where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed, he said.

The buildings were enclosed by high dirt berms, according to the image reviewed by Reuters. Such structures are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating combustible materials in nearby structures.

"Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers," Eveleth said. "These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them."

With a limited operation, he said, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran's ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel's missile defenses.

"The strikes appear to be highly accurate," he said.

Axios reported that Israel destroyed hit 12 "planetary mixers" used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, quoting three unnamed Israeli sources as saying this severely damages Iran's ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter Iran from further massive missile strikes against Israel.

Israeli sources also stated that four S-300 air defense batteries attacked that were in strategic locations that protected nuclear and energy facilities in Tehran during the operation. A factory for the production of drones and a facility in the Parchin military complex were also attacked, the latter of which saw in the past research and development activities for nuclear weapons.

The Arabic independent online newspaper Elaph reported Israel targeted a secret ballistic missile factory in Iran, destroying a large number of heavy fuel mixers used to power Kheibar and Haj Qasem missiles - both of which were fired by Iran at Israel at the beginning of the month. The report also claimed that the S-300 air defense batteries that were attacked were Russian-made and destroyed radars that feed these systems and others in Syria and Iraq.

The report said that the ballistic missile factory was completely destroyed. One source told Elaph that it was the "backbone of Iran's missile industry" and that Israel had "put it out of service," also reporting that each heavy fuel mixer destroyed was estimated to be at least two million dollars and about twenty mixers of this type were destroyed.

While Walla reported that production to restore such equipment would reportedly take at least one year, informed sources on the Iranian missile industry told Elaph that it would take at least two years to return the destroyed factory to service.

Iranian and Israeli officials confirmed to the New York Times that Israel had targeted the defenses at the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, in Khuzestan Province; at the major economic port Bandar Imam Khomeini, adjacent to it; and at the Abadan oil refinery.

“Israel is sending a clear message to us,” Hamid Hosseini, an expert on Iran’s oil and gas industry and a member of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, told the Times. “This can have very serious economic consequences for Iran, and now that we understand the stakes we need to act wise and not continue the tensions.”

Sources told The Jerusalem Post that the estimated projection was six months to a year.

Overall, more than 100 Israeli aircraft participated in the attack on Iranian targets, stating that their mission was to hit the most advanced anti-aircraft systems of the Islamic Republic and develop air superiority there for any possible upcoming IAF operations - in such a way that Israeli fighter jets would be able to fly even at a relatively low altitude in the skies of Tehran itself in the future.

Estimates say it will still take many more days to assess the damage caused by the attacks.