Wilderness Walk: Rumor Mill Starting

Oct 14, 2023

Posted Thursday at 01:48 PM

Conventional wisdom would state that there is no way Matt Dumba comes back, we simply can't afford him. I realize Revolving Hockey has him listed higher, but Dumba's production really places him at around a $4m/yr. contract.

But, not so fast. Dumba, along with some other UFA players of other teams are entering a year where most teams are going into the season using LTIR, and with the cap only going up $1m, the choices are the bottom feeder teams for the most part.

All said, and this will be the last year for this in the current cycle, to be a UFA this year is just a terrible storm of finance. The current trend among GMs is to pay the RFAs off their potential, and with the cap staying mostly stagnant that leaves little room for the UFAs. We did this with Boldy and Kaprizov, and might be doing it with Goose2.

So, where might Matt Dumba fit? You'd think from a capitalistic standpoint that he'd take the best deal he could find. But, that "best financial deal" is likely coming from a team on the rise just hoping to make the playoffs. I could see and Ottawa or Detroit being interested, but not really breaking the bank.

How does this affect the Wild? Well, Dumba's already got a pretty good community network here. It's been his home for a decade. He wears an A which likely makes him very connected to this group of guys. The Wild are very likely to gain another playoff invitation, and in his mind, there is some unfinished business with this club. Dumba isn't really that old, he'll be 29 when next season starts. While he's been injured, D usually get a little better with age and can compensate for physical decline with increased anticipation.

From the Wild's perspective, it looks like Faber is in line to take a defensive spot. It also appears that Addison could be on the block. The cavalry of defenders won't start being delivered until 2024. They need 1 more year before they will see O'Rourke, Hunt, Lambos ready, with Johansson as a wild card. To paraphrase "What About Bob," baby steps to 2024!

Could Dumba bet on himself? Might he take a very low 1 year deal to try and elevate his stock? By very low, I'm talking in the $1m range. It sounds preposterous! But, this is the worst time this cycle to be an UFA. You'd be familiar with your surroundings, still have your community, and be comfortable with your teammates. One thing desperately needed is a better showing statistically to get that next decent contract before retiring.

How could this play out? Well, Dumba would head off to free agency after the league year ends. He finds out from his agent that offers are less than expected....quite a bit less. His agent informs him that most competing teams have no money. It's not that his market value is so low, it's that nobody has the money to give him close to what he should expect. He reaches out to Guerin in the mid August area and they work out an agreement.

Next year should see a significant boost in the cap, even though the Wild will still be lagging $15m for another year. Teams will have money to throw at 30 year old defenders who hopefully have gone to the basement and refound their offensive game. This could very easily be a win-win scenario for both the club and the player. While I realize that Dumba is smaller, he plays bigger than his measurements. I could see this being a very short term solution, almost a thank you for keeping him through 2 expansion drafts.

I believe Guerin will want the best for Dumba and that he gets a nice new deal. I also believe Guerin would love to have Dumba back and doesn't really see a way he can keep him. We can all see the numbers. But about 2/3rds of the teams also have brutal cap numbers.